Curse

NoThanks · Aug 18, 2005, 05:42 PM // 17:42

Does anyone else get the feeling that they have gotten unlucky since the last economy update ? I've started a character after they "fixed" the prices, I'm currently in Yak's bend and I have gotten ONE DYE DROP so far (green in pre-searing).
I may just have a really long stroke of bad luck, but reducing dye drops seems to be quite probable, actually:

When Arena has increased the amount of gold you get when selling dye to a trader, they encouraged many players to sell dye to an NPC rather than trading it to other players. And here Anet's beloved supply & demand comes into play: INCREASED SUPPLY REDUCES PRICES (real life economy 4TW)

So, the developers may be trying to keep the games broken economy from collapsing once again, in an opposite direction this time- they are trying to prevent the dye prices from collapsing to a "200 gold for black" level.

moonshadow · Aug 18, 2005, 05:46 PM // 17:46

Actually, my drops seemed to improve slightly...I say slightly because it doesn't seem noticable enough since the update, but if it continues I'd say things have gotten better. I picked up a dye last night, a purple and a few blues...that's the best I've gotten in a long time and I didn't even play that long.

Loviatar · Aug 18, 2005, 05:49 PM // 17:49

mine are about the usual for the last 3 days

maybe 5-6 dyes including silver red and blue

Esprit · Aug 18, 2005, 05:51 PM // 17:51

I get a dye once every blue moon, that hasn't changed for quite some time, so I would say it's just luck of the draw.

Robos Stavanis · Aug 18, 2005, 05:52 PM // 17:52

I have not noticed an overall trend going one way or the other. Some days I get a span of none, while other days make up for it. All in all, about the same.

stdnox · Aug 18, 2005, 05:54 PM // 17:54

belive it or not i have recive 1 black many blues/red /greens/ and a few silivers/and 1 or 2 yellows /3 oranges

Monica Angelina · Aug 18, 2005, 05:59 PM // 17:59

From rarely getting a dye once in a blue moon, in the past few days I've gotten at least one dye each night if not more than one (as well as my random PUG traveling companions). I had to put away 2 green, 1 red, and 1 silver last night after using one red on a piece of armor.

Hexgame · Aug 18, 2005, 06:01 PM // 18:01

Not true, I get several dyes per day.

Loviatar · Aug 18, 2005, 06:01 PM // 18:01

i just checked my storage and got a rough count

from day 1 i have just over 130 dyes including 10 black and 16 silver

the most i have are the worthless orange ones 37

NoThanks · Aug 18, 2005, 06:03 PM // 18:03

Maybe the drops are increasing later in the game, but this is really strange because before, I usually got around 3 dyes in pre-searing alone.

Vorlin · Aug 18, 2005, 06:03 PM // 18:03

A fact about randomness is that a truly random set of events/numbers will have clumps in it. For instance, when flipping a coin you have a 50% chance for heads, 50% chance for tails. But if you flip a coin a 1000 times and track the results, you won't see a series like this:

H T H T H T H T H T...

But instead more like this:

H H T T T H T H H T...

Since dye drops are random and rare, any given drop is unlikely to be a dye. What this means is that is you track drops you'll see clumping like what I listed above, but that clumps of dye drops will be quite rare, and clumps of no dye drops will mean going a -long- time between seeing a dye drop.

When you make a post like this on the forum, you're likely to attract two kinds of replies: one from people currently experiencing their own drought (supporting the idea that drops have been nerfed), and one from people currently experiencing a clump of dye drops (making it look like the opposite has in fact occurred).

Dye drops are so rare that the only way to -really- tell if their level has been altered is to track every drop you get for thousands and thousands of drops and then do a statistical analysis to determine if there is in fact a change over time. With something as rare as dye drops you simply can't use your subjective feeling about it as a guide, because people are biologically hardwired to notice clumps and thus to over-emphasize them (positively or negatively).

NoThanks · Aug 18, 2005, 06:04 PM // 18:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loviatar

i just checked my storage and got a rough count

from day 1 i have just over 130 dyes including 10 black and 16 silver

the most i have are the worthless orange ones 37

What are you farming my friend ? I gotta try...

Maxiemonster · Aug 18, 2005, 06:07 PM // 18:07

I have found about 200 Dyes till the release or something. I think most of them found in Pre-Searing, since even after all the nerfing, they still drop every run I've done. Found 10 Black Dyes in Pre-Searing the lost 2 weeks, mwuhahaah!

Javias · Aug 18, 2005, 06:13 PM // 18:13

Thankfully the wife and I share on our two accounts and she gets dye drops all the time. She must get at least 4 per day. I on the other hand am lucky to get 1. Luck of the draw I say. And some people just aint lucky.

Mavrik · Aug 18, 2005, 06:16 PM // 18:16

I have varied luck in dyes... some trips I may find 2-3 dyes ranging from green, yellow and silver. Rarely do I get black, blue or red. I think I have only gotten 3 black dye drops in the total 200+ hours I have played. One trip I got 3 dye, two purple and 1 green. Next trip... nothing at all. Its all in that randomness...

Actually speaking of the market, I got it to flux for me. I had a pile of cloth to sell and they were going for 90g a bolt of 10. I sold about 5 that way and then the price went to 80g for 10 and the selling price asked by the merchant went down to 180g for 10 instead of 190g. I had a laugh, I had directly seen the effect in the market.

Elythor · Aug 18, 2005, 06:18 PM // 18:18

Regualr dye drops are the same for me. But I used to get a LOT of purple...now don't see them as much.

But I have yet to see a black dye drop (for me or for anyone in my party) ever since WPE back in Oct last year.

Bad luck? I think so too.

Chillin-N-Killin · Aug 18, 2005, 06:29 PM // 18:29

I have not noticed a huge drop in dye's i got 1 black and 1 silver in 1 mission at the ring of fire last night. But I also mainly only play on the weekend (between work and tech school no time to play during the week)

Xonic · Aug 18, 2005, 06:31 PM // 18:31

I think ANet nerfed the drop rates on my account. I haven't gottan a single black dye, or shard in the 2 months of playing...

ManadartheHealer · Aug 18, 2005, 06:41 PM // 18:41

Dye drops are normal for me...

And sometimes griffons drop dye, but they've only given me 1 silver, and a few of every other color so far (no black

)

trelloskilos · Aug 18, 2005, 06:42 PM // 18:42

I think it is random. I've discovered 1 or 2 places where (for some reason), dyes seem to drop more frequently than others for me. It could just be coincidence, but it could just as easily be the way that Anet have designed it.

Not that I have that much interest in dyes TBH. It's nice to get one or two, but in comparison to what you might make on farming with 3 henchies in the high Shiverpeaks for about 1/2 an hour, it's small potatoes.